War on Iran? Bad Idea!

Map of Iran

Increasingly I am seeing stories in the media about a possible U.S. attack, such as this article “Imagining A War With Iran” from the New York Sun. Sabre-rattling is one thing, but the Bush Administration doesn’t really do that – its strategy always appears to be military first (kind of like thinking you can fix everything with a hammer). I think it’s a terrible idea for a variety of reasons.

1. I doubt we have strong intelligence about where supposed nuclear activities are actually occuring. Thus bombing will end up being semi-random and will not do what it’s claimed to do (but will, of course, kill plenty of innocents).

2. I think the regime in Iran is actually pretty unsteady already, and could fall before long. But if we knock it over violently, there will be hatred, not thanks, for the U.S. If we actually care about reducing long-term threats to the U.S., an attack on Iran is not the way to achieve it.

3. The U.S. can’t really afford to do this; particulary if it would create chaos in oil markets. $100/barrel may seem cheap if an attack happens. And of course however many hundreds of billions of dollars for war spending.

I’m sure there are plenty more good arguments against a war plan, but this is enough in my mind. I just hope that there’s some chance to stop it.

I note that quite a few people seem to think all the Iran talk is simply a red herring, and I hope they’re right. But doing always starts with imagining and planning.

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